Calculated Human Extinction Risks Sorted Highest to Lowest:

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Each risk is listed with its magnitude which is also called "Risk Priority Number" and is abbreviated as "RPN". The higher the risk number, the greater is our concern for the risk:

These risk ratings are based on a quarterly documented risk assessment that is subject to additional review every three months. Your feedback on the risk calculator is welcomed.

Following are the Extinction Risks and their Risk Priority Numbers (RPN):

Greenhouse heating (a):

CASE 1: runaway greenhouse effect RPN: 270
CASE 4: 6 degrees centigrade global warming RPN: 240

CASE 3: 4 degrees centigrade global warming RPN: 225

CASE 2: 2 degrees centigrade global warming RPN: 200

Nuclear bomb winter and radiation (m) RPN: 180

Incurable lethal global pandemic (q) RPN: 128

Ecological collapse (e) RPN: 120

Passing mass perturbs planets’ orbits (j) RPN: 100

Unfriendly artificial intelligence (o) RPN: 100

Mankind hasn’t spread from zones that become destroyed (v) RPN: 100

Novae & Gamma Ray Bursts (g) RPN: 90

Uncontrolled human overpopulation (n) RPN: 60

Andromeda merger early disruption by distant outliers (k) RPN: 40

Extreme sea level rise (c) RPN: 32

Large scale volcanic eruptions (r) RPN: 24

Lethal solar mass ejections (h) RPN: 21

Degradation of the human genome (w) RPN: 20

Lethal self-replicating nanobots (p) RPN: 18

Asteroid or meteor strike (f) RPN: 14

Increasing solar heat from aging sun (i) RPN: 10

LHC at CERN generates a permanent black hole (i) RPN: 10

Extreme drop in oxygen (b) RPN: 6

Oxygenated ice age (d) RPN: 6

Aliens attempt to destroy mankind (l) RPN: 5

Loss of Earth’s magnetic field (s) RPN: 3

Loss of UV radiation ozone shield (t) RPN: 3

Sub-replacement reproduction (u) RPN: 2